点dzptvs5of6fyk0rs5-爱游戏体育入口

　　查看PDF原文公告日期：2015-12-02

　　中广核电力(01816) YTD nuclear power outperformed non-nuclear utility in terms of powergeneration and utilisation rates.爱游戏官方网站 In the first nine months, the country’sutilisation rates of nuclear inched up 19 hours (hrs) y-o-y to 5,525 hrswhile that of thermal power, hydropower and wind power decreased by265 hrs, 84 hrs and 22.8 hrs respectively. China’s nuclear powergeneration over Jan-Oct registered 31% growth while the country’stotal electricity consumption inched up 0.7%. Management maintains confidence in double digit earnings growth in2015, delays Hongyanhe (HYH) project and Taishan project. 9M15 netprofit increased 19% y-o-y to Rmb5,421mn under PRC GAAPaccounting standard, accounting for 89% of our FY15F earnings. HYHUnit 4 is delayed to 2Q16 instead of 4Q15 for commercialcommencement, which is to adhere to local Liaoning province’s gridpriority to steam-electricity co-generation utility during winter season.Taishan Unit 1 & Unit 2 are announced to delayed to start operation in1H17 and 2H17 from original 1H16 and 2H16 respectively as thesystematic integration and performance testing of the third-generationnuclear Tech have yet to be verified. This is because there is no suchnuclear power generating units has been put into commercial operationacross the world. Estimates revised down. We deem HYH delay has limited impact onFY15/16 earnings given the original scheduled kick-off in 4Q15 dullseasonality would pressurise on the utilisation hours of HYH Unit 1 & 2& 3 Units, thus, adversely impacting earnings. However, we cut FY16/17earnings by 5%/18% to reflect nil earnings contribution/half-yearearnings contribution from Taishan project respectively. We project netprofit to increase at 14% CAGR in FY15-17, driven by 16% CAGR inpower generation and stable EBITDA margin. Valuation:爱游戏网页版 TP slightly reduced to HK$4.52, BUY. We roll over our valuation to 2016and revise up our TP slightly to HK$4.52, equivalent to 0.65x P/NPV. Thisimplies 23.9x FY16F PE. We think the implied PE target valuationpremium to non-nuclear utility peers is justified by the nuclear industry’ssignificant entry barriers and the company’s L-T organic capacity growthand asset acquisition from the parent. Key Risks to Our View:爱游戏体育 Business risks include power tariff risks, utilisation hours risks andexecution risk includes capex overrun.

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